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Description
The Flaw of AveragesDiscover 'The Flaw of Averages', an essential read for entrepreneurs and decision makers navigating the complexities of uncertainty and risk in business. This insightful book, authored by Sam Savage, reveals the pitfalls of relying on average figures when making critical financial decisionswhether forecasting sales, budgeting for costs, or evaluating stock prices. In a world where uncertainty reigns supreme, understanding the flaws in traditional
Discover 'The Flaw of Averages', an essential read for entrepreneurs and decision-makers navigating the complexities of uncertainty and risk in business. This insightful book, authored by Sam Savage, reveals the pitfalls of relying on average figures when making critical financial decisions—whether forecasting sales, budgeting for costs, or evaluating stock prices. In a world where uncertainty reigns supreme, understanding the flaws in traditional statistical methods can greatly impact your personal and corporate strategies.This 416-page book, published in 2012 by John Wiley & Sons Inc, employs accessible language to demystify intricate concepts, making it an invaluable resource for both seasoned professionals and curious learners. Savage’s unique approach includes engaging animations and simulations through a supporting website, enhancing reader comprehension and retention.
Delve into thought-provoking topics such as healthcare statistics, financial analysis, and even gender differences explored through the lens of the Central Limit Theorem. With 'The Flaw of Averages', you’ll be equipped to confront the myriad uncertainties that decorate our lives today.
Order now and take the first step towards enhancing your decision-making skills in business and beyond! Note: Shipping for this item is free. Please allow up to 6 weeks for delivery. Once your order is placed, it cannot be cancelled.
Note: Shipping for this item is free. Please allow up to 6 weeks for delivery. Once your order is placed, it cannot be cancelled.
Condition: BRAND NEW
ISBN: 9781118073759
Year: 2012
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons Inc (US)
Pages: 416
Description:
A must-read for anyone who makes business decisions that have a
major financial impact.
As the recent collapse on Wall Street shows, we are often
ill-equipped to deal with uncertainty and risk. Yet every day we
base our personal and business plans on uncertainties, whether they
be next month?s sales, next year?s costs, or
tomorrow?s stock price. In The Flaw of Averages, Sam
SavageĂ‚Âknown for his creative exposition of difficult
subjects describes common avoidable mistakes in assessing
risk in the face of uncertainty. Along the way, he shows why plans
based on average assumptions are wrong, on average, in areas as
diverse as healthcare, accounting, the War on Terror, and climate
change. In his chapter on Sex and the Central Limit Theorem, he
bravely grasps the literary third rail of gender differences.
Instead of statistical jargon, Savage presents complex concepts
in plain English. In addition, a tightly integrated web site
contains numerous animations and simulations to further connect the
seat of the reader?s intellect to the seat of their
pants.
The Flaw of Averages typically results when someone plugs
a single number into a spreadsheet to represent an uncertain future
quantity. Savage finishes the book with a discussion of the
emerging field of Probability Management, which cures this problem
though a new technology that can pack thousands of numbers into a
single spreadsheet cell.
Praise for The Flaw of Averages
?Statistical uncertainties are pervasive in decisions we
make every day in business, government, and our personal lives. Sam
Savage?s lively and engaging bo
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4.1 ★★★★★
Based on 15 reviews
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Product Reviews
★★★★★ 5
OUTSTANDING
Format: Kindle
This was very, very good. The world is vast and characters are complex. There is a good plot with a whole lot going on. This is well written. Good twists and turns and some heart breaking moments. You will love these characters, they have heart and loyalty. I am hoping that there will be several more books. We've yet to see anything from the Sea Court but only a mention of them here and there. The Wood Court was given a quick couple of scenes, and only as far as some warriors, we've yet to enter their court and the Shadow Court, I'm not sure if they will be a force for good or bad, but they definitely will play a much bigger role moving forward. This is primarily the Ice and Air Courts. Told in multiple views, which I loved, it gives you a chance to see things from different eyes. There's alot of political maneuvering and deception. I loved it and will pick up the next book as it becomes available. If you like The Fae and the courts, you should love this. I think the author has mucn in store for us.
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Reviewed in the United States on March 8, 2020
★★★★★ 4
Definitely worth the read!
Format: Kindle
After taking a deep breath and taking in that wicked twist of an ending, I have finally composed myself. My first thought when I started this book was that I love Reyna's character. I was intrigued by her connection with her familiar and the Ruin that is plaguing her land. It came as no surprise that she took her sister's place in an attempt to protect her. When they reach the Air Court everything slows down. This is where it was iffy for me. First of all, I like multiple POV's in books however 7 is a bit much. It starts to interrupt the story line. I felt like I was finally making progress connecting with one character, then it was switched to another person. I felt they all had necessary or pertinent information but not necessarily were they all POV worthy. The only other thing that annoyed me was that Reyna constantly was " trapped." She would rush off without thinking, only to need rescuing. She is brilliant in a fight, but she really doesn't think through anything. Lorcan is amazing. I know he might be on the "bad" list, but his background is so interesting. Eislyn(Reyna's sister) is really so sweet, but calculating. I enjoyed her and Thane's dialogue. The author did an amazing job with the imagery in this book. Everything was so detailed it was easy to fall into the scene. I love unexpected twists and while part of the ending I expected, I wasn't expecting how it took place. All in all, I found it very entertaining and I am very invested in continuing this series.
Favorite quotes:
"The truth may be twisted but never false."
"Who was she if she was not the enemy of the Air Court? What was her purpose of she no longer has that?"
"In a war-torn land, love was always a lie."
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Reviewed in the United States on March 4, 2020
★★★★★ 5
Great Read!!! Great story!!!
Format: Kindle
The series is long, but Ms. Wolfhart does a fantastic job of weaving this tale while bringing so much to the characters. Surprises and plot twists along the way to keep you intrigued. There is some graphic sex, but is no way the focal point. Grammar was excellent (a rare find with a lot of self publishers) with only a few noted errors. I rarely give 4 stars, let alone 5.
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Reviewed in the United States on April 30, 2021
★★★★★ 3
Sadly, DNF
Format: Kindle
I read this thru KU. I LOVED the synopsis. And then I began reading... and it was a DNF at 68% after picking it up and putting it down several times because I really loved the main female character.
*****SPOILERS*****
Pros:
The world is unique, intriguing and fun. The primary female character is bad-a** but not a b*tech or a mary sue. The primary female has depth. I really want to know what happens to her even tho it's been weeks and I don't remember her name. The villains to the point I read are pretty good -- an ever present threat of mysterious and possibly many culprits.
Cons:
Way, way too many points of view. I stopped counting at 7. It's the prime reason why I don't care about most of the characters or remember their names even when I like them. There's just too many points of view so almost none of the characters have enough book space for the author to properly develop them. This literally killed the book for me. Actually it killed my desire to read. For weeks.
The main male is more villain than hero. He agreed to marry the main female then locks her up & eschews her for her sister, all while bad mouthing her as unfit to rule when he never spent any time with her getting to know her. He is actually unfit to rule as he is blind to the woes of his own kingdom and starts off a peace mission to secure a ceasefire through marriage by murdering an inn full of people in her country for no real reason. Plus, he constantly makes promises he does not keep. And it's gross of him to pine for the sister behind the main female's back.
*****
As much as I really wanted to see what happened to the main female character, it wasn't enough for me to keep trying to slog thru this book. There was a lot of potential here that just fell short.
Hence, 3 stars.
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Reviewed in the United States on June 19, 2021
★★★★★ 5
Fae Courts with High Intrigue
Format: Kindle
This book is one that just builds and builds and then surprises you to no end. You may think you know the villains and then you are jolted in another direction. Princess Reyna is a real gem, strong of character, a fierce fighter, and loyal to her family and kingdom. Just when you think she and Lorcan, well you know, the plot is flipped. Can't wait to see where this goes in book two.
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Reviewed in the United States on July 7, 2023